Arctic shipping is on the rise. Over the past decade, the number of vessels entering Arctic waters has grown dramatically, and with it, the risks of navigating one of the world’s most challenging and least-charted environments. As the Arctic continues to warm at a rate of three times the global average and ice conditions become less predictable, new maritime routes are opening up that were simply not accessible only a generation ago. But increased access does not necessarily mean safe waterways. Ensuring the safety of ships and the protection of the fragile Arctic marine environment remains a pressing issue in the region.
The intersection of safety and environmental stewardship is the core of the Arctic Council’s Working Group for the Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME). Together, PAME and the Arctic Regional Hydrographic Commission (ARHC) jointly issued an updated advisory note, “Caution Required When Navigating in Arctic Waters,” the first update since the ARHC’s original 2017 cautionary note.
We spoke with Manon Larocque, Hydrographer General of Canada, Director General of the Canadian Hydrographic Service, and current Chair of the ARHC, about what has changed, what the risks are, and why this advisory matters for mariners, policymakers, and the Arctic itself.
Before we get into the advisory note itself, for those who may not be familiar, what is the ARHC, and what role does it play in Arctic safety?
The ARHC, or the Arctic Regional Hydrographic Commission, is made up of members of the International Hydrographic Organization who have charting responsibilities in the Arctic. Member states of the Arctic Council and IHO member states who work in the Arctic can also become associate members. The Commission’s primary focus is to coordinate charting in the Arctic and to share best practices and insights on working in the region, with the objective of supporting safety of navigation. In recent years, the Commission has collaborated on how best to leverage advances in non-traditional technologies to expand or improve Arctic coverage, including force multipliers like uncrewed vehicles, autonomous vessels, and satellite-derived bathymetry.
PAME has been closely tracking Arctic shipping trends for years, and the picture is striking – the number of vessels entering Arctic waters increased by 37% between 2013 and 2023. From the ARHC’s perspective, how does this growth in shipping traffic affect the urgency of charting and understanding these waters?
I think most members of the Arctic community would agree that increased charting would help reduce risks to navigators, but all of us recognize the challenge of adequately capturing data across the full expanse of the region. We have been increasing surveying and charting efforts, prioritizing high-traffic areas to improve the percentage of charts meeting modern standards. The goal is always to improve safety of navigation, mitigate the risk of grounding, and support protection of the Arctic marine environment. With increasing traffic, this becomes more and more important as the risks increase with every additional vessel in the region. And with the changing climate bringing potential new hazards, this is precisely why we felt the time was right to issue an updated cautionary note.
As you highlight, to address these potential new hazards, PAME and the ARHC have just jointly released an updated cautionary note entitled “Caution Required When Navigating in Arctic Waters.” For a general audience, what is a cautionary note and why does issuing one matter?
The note warns mariners traveling in the Arctic of the risks to navigational safety, reminding them to exercise caution and mitigate potential risks. It emphasizes that substantial areas of the Arctic remain uncharted to modern standards, and highlights challenges with ice predictability and access to digital communications that can affect the reliability of electronic navigation charts and S-100 digital products. The note also reminds mariners of the importance of adhering to the Polar Code and the STCW Convention to ensure crews are properly trained for hazardous polar environments. It encourages essential safety preparations, such as extensive voyage planning, reviewing emergency procedures, and ensure that survival equipment, such as immersion suits, ice removal equipment, and enclosed lifeboats is appropriate for the remote and cold Arctic environment. Finally, it calls on mariners to promptly report any uncharted dangers or chart discrepancies to national hydrographic offices, a key piece of information sharing that helps offices stay on top of evolving hazards.
This is an update to the ARHC’s original 2017 cautionary note. What has changed so significantly in the past nine years that a new version was needed?
As we have highlighted, the ongoing changes in the Arctic environment are leading to increased vessel traffic, yet gaps in modern charting coverage remain. Despite all efforts to share information and lessons learned, the expanse of the Arctic is such that significant risks persist. With changing conditions, we felt it was time to issue a reminder that proper route planning, extensive experience, and good judgment are needed to mitigate navigation risks in the region. In addition, with S-100 standards now being deployed in southern waters, we wanted to ensure that mariners would not expect or rely on the same level of access to S-100 services in the Arctic. We are still working on developing S-100 coverage in the north, but may never reach full capacity due to the vast expanse and challenges of operating there. The note aims to manage expectations and highlight the ongoing risks, so that mariners enter the area well prepared and ready for whatever they may face.
Underpinning the climate changes in the Arctic is the fact the region is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, and PAME’s work has documented some of the consequences for the marine environment. In your view, what are the most pressing ways climate change is reshaping Arctic shipping?
I would highlight three key ways. First, changing ice conditions are opening up potential shipping routes. Second, this is leading to increasing interest in access to resources, trade diversification, and new markets and partnerships. And third, changing ice patterns are making weather more unpredictable, potentially increasing hazards to navigation.
These changing ice conditions, including retreating sea ice, is often portrayed as simply opening up the Arctic, making it more accessible and easier to navigate. The cautionary note challenges that assumption. Can you explain why a warming Arctic can actually introduce new navigational hazards, rather than remove them?
As ice conditions change, there is actually less predictability and increased risk of drifting multi-year ice. Ice continues to pose a risk. And while areas where ships can travel may open up, this introduces new potential for ships to enter areas that have been less traveled, and therefore remain uncharted to modern standards. Simply because a channel or area may appear free of ice does not mean it is safe to go there. You may not know what lies beneath, invisible to the human eye, or you may think you are in one-year ice and suddenly encounter drifting multi-year ice, which is thicker, more resilient, and has higher potential for significant damage. The changing ice context is a key factor and is further complicated by the reality that we do not have all of the Arctic charted to modern standards. We have seen a number of groundings in recent years, typically caused when vessels travel off the beaten path.
Climate change doesn’t just affect the ice on the surface, it is also transforming the seabed and coastlines themselves. How does a rapidly changing physical environment affect the work of hydrographers, and what does that mean for the reliability of existing charts?
Shorelines and coastlines can change with rising sea levels through coastal erosion and other phenomena, increasing the need to rechart and redefine coastlines. Some charts we create may be good for generations, but with changing shorelines and sea level rises, there comes a point where a chart must be substantially updated. There can also be impacts to depths and vertical datums, leading to a need to adjust more frequently. In Canada, for example, we have been looking at how to address this challenge by expanding our water level network in the North. As the system evolves, there is potential for future S-100 services to help us adapt to these changes by providing more frequent updates and near real-time data in the hands of mariners.
The advisory points to the fact that large parts of the Arctic still lack reliable, modern hydrographic data. For someone who has never thought about what it means to navigate uncharted waters, can you put that risk into plain terms?
Quite simply, you are navigating blindly. Even in deep water, an obstacle can appear before you and you may not have time to react, putting yourself, your crew, and your vessel at risk. This could lead to loss of human life, an environmental disaster should pollutants enter the water, or significant economic impact from cleanup efforts. If groundings increase, insurance costs go up, and ultimately that cost is passed on to consumers as well. Mariners are ultimately responsible for their vessels and should not navigate in areas where they do not have the information to do so safely.
New technology is often seen as the answer to safety challenges, and 2026 marks the introduction of next-generation S-100 electronic chart systems authorized by the IMO, something PAME has been following closely through the Arctic Shipping Best Practice Information Forum. Does better technology mean safer Arctic navigation?
Generally, yes, better technology should lead to safer navigation. However, the Arctic is a unique region. Until there is reliable, fail-safe communications capability in the North, mariners will have to continue to take additional precautions with backup measures and rely on their experience and knowledge. S-100 is being deployed in southern waters, but it will take time to implement in the Arctic as we need to gather more modern data first. Countries are focusing S-100 delivery where there is the highest traffic, highest risk, and best data, which at the moment is tied to major port approaches and high-transit corridors. As mariners become accustomed to high-tech navigation systems in southern waters, we will need to manage expectations until the North can offer a similar level of service. Technology is only one component of Arctic navigation, the skill, judgment, and training of mariners sailing in the North will remain critical.
The advisory specifically calls on mariners to report uncharted hazards and chart discrepancies back to national hydrographic offices. Why is that kind of real-world feedback so valuable, and does it take on added urgency in a rapidly changing environment?
The more information we can gather about the North, the better our opportunity to warn of navigation risks. Mariners can play a key role in ensuring the safety of fellow navigators by sharing hazards they encounter. As soon as a mariner informs us of a risk, we typically assess the situation quickly, issue a warning, and this can lead to adjustments to survey plans and updates to charts. We cannot be everywhere, there is no way for hydrographic offices alone to cover the vast expanse of the North. I would say mariners have a duty to report those risks. They are genuinely contributing to improving the overall picture for everyone’s safety.
Looking forward, what are the most pressing priorities for Arctic navigational safety, and where does international cooperation, through bodies like the Arctic Council, make the biggest difference?
The most pressing priority is to expand modern charting and survey coverage, prioritizing areas with the most vessel traffic. International cooperation through both the Arctic Council and the ARHC allows us to collaborate across transboundary areas, learn from each other’s experiences, and leverage innovative tools like uncrewed surface vessels and satellite-derived bathymetry to find the most efficient way to expand coverage. This kind of efficiency is essential in such a remote region where the survey season is also quite short. Having shared awareness of the challenges, working together to find solutions, and pooling our knowledge for the greater good, this is what good international collaboration looks like.
What would you most want mariners, shipping operators, or policymakers to take away from this advisory?
While every effort is being made to expand modern survey and chart coverage, the Arctic environment remains remote and challenging, with changing sea ice and weather patterns. I hope mariners exercise extreme caution when traveling in Arctic waters, make use of available safety tools, stay in areas charted to modern standards, and ensure they have planned effectively and have the appropriate training and experience to navigate safely in this region. The Arctic marine environment remains quite unknown, and it must be respected and treated accordingly.